Threat Models

April 9, 2024

In this article

    April 9, 2024

    Irregular Threat Models

    Threat model matrix outlining cyber threat models from basic actors to nation-state level threats, illustrating the evolving landscape of expertise and scale upgrade from AI systems.


    Model Uplift / Actor Expertise

    Expertise Upgrade

    Scale Upgrade

    3rd Party Tool Creation

    Non-Technical

    Causing harm given access

    Information hazard: Cyber as a potential method to cause harm

    Accessibility to current SOTA capabilities

    Technical non-expert

    Run end to end attack

    Information hazard: Cyber as a potential method to cause harm

    Automated Attack Tool

    Niche Expert (e.g. cyber crime org)

    Hardened targets

    Spear-phishing at scale / scaling cyber crime

    Automated Attack Tool

    Cybersecurity Expert

    Running an APT

    Lead / target identification/ prioritization

    Automated Attack Tool

    Nation-state level

    Genuinely novel threat vectors

    Massive scaling for Nation-state APTs

    Automated Attack Tool

    AI Model (Model autonomy)

    AI model self-improvement

    Autonomous Replication


    Irregular Threat Models © 2024 by Irregular (Pattern Labs Tech Inc.) is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.

    April 9, 2024

    Irregular Threat Models

    Threat model matrix outlining cyber threat models from basic actors to nation-state level threats, illustrating the evolving landscape of expertise and scale upgrade from AI systems.


    Model Uplift / Actor Expertise

    Expertise Upgrade

    Scale Upgrade

    3rd Party Tool Creation

    Non-Technical

    Causing harm given access

    Information hazard: Cyber as a potential method to cause harm

    Accessibility to current SOTA capabilities

    Technical non-expert

    Run end to end attack

    Information hazard: Cyber as a potential method to cause harm

    Automated Attack Tool

    Niche Expert (e.g. cyber crime org)

    Hardened targets

    Spear-phishing at scale / scaling cyber crime

    Automated Attack Tool

    Cybersecurity Expert

    Running an APT

    Lead / target identification/ prioritization

    Automated Attack Tool

    Nation-state level

    Genuinely novel threat vectors

    Massive scaling for Nation-state APTs

    Automated Attack Tool

    AI Model (Model autonomy)

    AI model self-improvement

    Autonomous Replication


    Irregular Threat Models © 2024 by Irregular (Pattern Labs Tech Inc.) is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.

    To cite this article, please credit Irregular with a link to this page, or click to view the BibTeX citation.

    To cite this article, please credit Irregular with a link to this page, or click to view the BibTeX citation.